The Last Call
Battlelines drawn for local elections
Paul McLaughlin
Voters across Hastings and St Leonards will go to the polls on 7 May for what are likely to be the final local elections for Hastings Borough Council (HBC) and East Sussex County Council (ESCC). Both authorities are set to be abolished in 2028 and replaced with a new unitary council, the boundaries of which have yet to be determined.
HASTINGS BOROUGH COUNCIL
The elections to HBC will be hotly contested. The Greens, Labour, Reform UK and the Conservatives are fielding candidates in each of the 16 local wards. They will be joined by a number of independent community candidates, members of the former Hastings Independent group and five Liberal Democrats.
A JL Partners opinion poll carried out on 15 April put Reform UK on course to win most votes in Hastings with 26%, followed by Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 19%, the Greens on 18%, and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.
Local opinion polls are notoriously unreliable, however, and it is the Greens who appear confident and upbeat where it matters – on doorsteps across Hastings and St Leonards. The party needs a net gain of just five seats to take overall control of HBC – a council they have been running as a minority administration since May 2024.
Standing in the way will be Reform UK. Aidan Fisher’s victory in the Ashdown and Conquest County Council by-election last November – the first success for the party in Sussex – suggests it will make a breakthrough at this year’s local elections. However, opinion polls suggest a faltering of its surge in recent months, and local voters may well be turned off by the racist, violent and misogynistic messages posted on social media by Ricky Hodges, the party’s candidate in Tressell ward. The posts were highlighted last week by the BBC, forcing leader Nigel Farage to promise to review the candidature. But, whatever the outcome, Hodges will still be on the ballot paper as a Reform UK candidate when voters go to the polls.
These elections are likely to be very difficult for both Labour, as the party of government, and the Conservatives. Both traditional parties have been outflanked by insurgents to their left and right, respectfully. They are both likely to lose votes and long-held seats.
The remnants of the Hastings Independent group are likely to struggle as well. Former council leader Paul Barnett is stepping down, alongside Simon Willis. As for the remaining four—John Cannan, Nigel Sinden, Mike Turner, and Andy Batsford—they will have little more than their own personal reputations to lean on. Without the shield of a strong party machine or the momentum of recent victories, each will have to hope that a deep reservoir of local loyalty carries them over the line.
A welcome addition to the voting line up is the number of independent community candidates including Andrea Cowhig, of the Hastings Area Southern Housing Tenants Association, standing in Hollington, and Vicky Wilson in Ore. They are campaigning for tenants’ rights, stronger local health services, better education and tougher environmental protections.
EAST SUSSEX COUNTY COUNCIL
The county council elections will be just as competitively fought. ESCC is currently controlled by the Conservatives, although with only 22 seats they have had to rely on the support of independents to run the 50-member council.
The snapshot of public opinion carried out by JL Partners, however, suggests a new party will take control after 7 May. Its East Sussex poll has the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK tied on 30%, with the Conservatives in third place with just 15%, 3 points ahead of the Greens and 6 points ahead of Labour.
The Liberal Democrats are bullish about their chances of taking control of ESCC. They currently have 11 seats and, as a sign of their intent, they are contesting all 50 county council seats, unlike in the Hastings Borough Council elections where they are contesting just five of the 16 available.
The party enjoys strong support across East Sussex outside of Hastings, where the Greens have a firm foothold. If they can unite the progressive vote, as the Greens are trying to in Hastings, they could well wrest control from the Conservatives.
It is likely Labour will struggle to hold on to the county council seats held by Trevor Webb (Central St Leonards and Gensing), Phil Scott (Hollington and Wishing Tree) and Godfrey Daniel (Braybrooke and Castle). They are all standing down after 73 years of continual public service between them.
TACTICAL VOTING
Last November’s by-election in Ashdown and Conquest saw the Greens and Labour compete to convince voters that they were the ones best placed to stop the advance of Reform UK. Each team of canvassers encouraged the public to vote tactically, pushing the message that a vote for the other party would be wasted.
While strong doorstep recognition for local MP Helena Dollimore could offset voter disappointment with the government and help Labour retain some key wards, across much of the town and county the scene may be set for the Greens and Liberal Democrats to take on the mantle of defeating Reform UK.
No one can be sure of the outcome.
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