By-Election Battle Looms
Paul McLaughlin
A by-election for the East Sussex County Council seat of Ashdown and Conquest will be held on 20 November, following the sudden death of Conservative Councillor Peter Pragnell. With the cancellation of this year’s county council elections, this vote is the first chance for residents to deliver a verdict on the minority Conservative-led administration’s performance. The emergence of Reform UK, which is aiming to win its first seat in the county, has further elevated the contest from a routine local affair into a high-stakes referendum for all parties involved.
Traditionally a safe Tory seat, Ashdown and Conquest is now considered highly marginal. While Peter Pragnell secured 60% of the vote in 2021, the “Party-Gate” scandal under Boris Johnson and the tumultuous premiership of Liz Truss caused a sharp decline in Conservative fortunes.
The party, which is braced for a further slide in support in November, have chosen Caroline Kerswell, a Solicitor Advocate and former barrister as their candidate. In her professional career she has advised major financial institutions, fintech innovators and global regulators. Now living in St Leonards, she says she wants to “bring integrity, professionalism and problem-solving back into local government”.
Reform UK’s candidate, Aidan Fisher, is a former Territorial Army Officer with a background in financial services. He states that he “understands the importance of discipline, accountability, and sensible spending,” adding that he is “deeply concerned” about the state of council finances and local services.
Labour’s candidate Amanda Pollard is a healthcare campaigner who has spent much of her career working in the NHS and the Sussex Ambulance Service. She vows to “hold the Council to account for the Queensway Gateway fiasco, stand up for NHS workers and patients in our community, push for better playgrounds for our children and work to improve standards in education.”
The Green Party candidate is Paula Warne, the Hastings Borough Councillor for Gensing. Before her election, she worked as an inspector for East Sussex Highways and now works in adult mental health support. As Hastings’ Mental Health Champion, she campaigns to improve services and reduce stigma. She has the backing of the Hastings Independents Group (HIGs), which is not fielding its own candidate. The group endorsed Warne as the best candidate to defeat Reform UK, stating that supporting her is essential to protect the area’s “tolerant tradition”.
The Liberal Democrats have again selected semi-retired business advisor Martin Griffiths. He contested the seat in 2021 taking just 8.7% of the vote. Despite this, he believes his party is best placed to defeat Reform UK and expose their “false promises.”
HIP’s data analyst James Prentice writes:
The Ashdown and Conquest by-election is likely to be a very tight contest. Based on national figures compiled by the election prediction specialists, Electoral Calculus, Reform UK is a narrow favourite to win with a 42.2% chance of winning, just ahead of Labour at 41.8%. It calculates this through machine learning, something that uses a statistical algorithm to make projections. This specific methodology uses national polling trends to infer localised results, with it being possible to predict local council ward results. Crucially, this carries the caveat that local election results can vary using this method, and it can’t take into account local factors, such as a popular local candidate.
Since 2021, Labour has been the main beneficiary of the sharp decline in Tory support, but its own experience in government is now taking a toll. Unlike in 2024, the party cannot rely on a split of the right-of-centre coalition to pave the way to victory. Labour may need progressive voters, such as Greens and Lib-Dems, to ensure its vote share will be high enough to beat Reform.
In contrast, Reform UK is now riding high. They are gathering not just disaffected Conservatives but disgruntled Labour supporters, too. The Greens, with the backing of the HIGs, are also making in-roads into Labour’s core vote, particularly since Zack Polanski’s election as Leader.
The election in Ashdown and Conquest will be a volatile race, with it being possible for a candidate to win on as little as 30% of the vote on what will likely be a small turnout. The winner will likely be determined not by their own popularity, but by where disaffected voters place their support.
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Worth reading David Angell’ letter (published before the election) criticising the use of these statistics in a local election. In the event the article’s predictions, except insofar as it predicted a Reform gain, were hopelessly wrong. Labour were not the main challengers, bur the Green Party was by a very long way. Although I was disappointed by the Lib Dem vote it was still (at 5%)five times the article’s prediction.
Whatever I think of the result it is clear that the voters made up their own minds about who they wanted and who the main challengers were without recourse to doubtful national statistics.
A remarkable result for Aidan Fisher who must be congratulated. A dreadful result for the Conservatives. Commiserations them and to all the others.